The paradox of declining fertility and declining contraceptive use in India: An artefact of survey design?

Sonalde Desai Santanu Pramanik Bijay Chouhan

National Family Health Survey round 4 of 2015–2016 (IIPS & ICF, 2017) bring important data for planning and policy evaluation but they also present some puzzles. Total fertility rate declined substantially between 2005-06 when NFHS-3 (IIPS & Macro International, 2007) was conducted and 2015-16 from 2.68 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.62–2.74) to 2.18 (95% CI 2.16–2.20) and is currently just above the replacement level of fertility of 2.1 children per women. However, over the same period, current contraceptive use declined from 56.3% (95% CI: 55.7%–57.0%) to 53.5% (95% CI: 53.3%–53.8%).